Will the revolution reach Ethiopia?

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Many Ethiopians are asking this same question.  One thing to note, however, is that the countries where the upheaval is taking place are much more urbanized than Ethiopia. The following data is from Wikipedia:

Country
Tunisia
Egypt
Libya
Bahrain
Ethiopia
Urbanization
67%
43%
78%
89%
17%

Given the much smaller level of urbanization and the 2005 experience, it seems unlikely that a similar process will unfold in Ethiopia. That is not to say it can’t happen — Ethiopia has experienced a largely urban revolution in the past and it’s urban population is concentrated in the capital (about 36% of the urban population is in and around Addis). This however cuts both ways.  While it means there is a large enough population to pose a serious challenge to the regime, it also means that protests elsewhere will be smaller, allowing the security apparatus to concentrate on the capital.